🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Participant Profited $436K on Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, sparking debate about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Changing Odds in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion rose in the period preceding President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A particular user, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436,000 from a initial bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However these probabilities had climbed to over 10% by the end of the day and surged in the first hours of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," commented an industry expert. A handful of other platform users also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Political Attention Emerges Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on Monday would prevent federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the United States, with traders able to predict everything from sports outcomes to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."